Recent scientific studies from Japan, Europe, and the US, suggest that climatic changes will be far more rapid and serious than forecast in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report published earlier this year. Based on empirical research as well as theoretical modelling, these studies indicate that alarming changes are escalating in crucial climate zones, such as the polar ice sheets and the tropical rainforests.
These sobering studies are emerging just as public concern about climate change seems to be slipping off the radar screen – eerily reminiscent of the brief period of public anxiety about the environment in the late 1980’s. Memories of the recent strangely warm winter have been eclipsed by a near normal summer and the exigencies of climate seem to have passed like a ten second sound bite. It is back to business as usual.
Climate scientists generally agree that the critical temperature threshold is an increase of 2 degrees – and we may be halfway there already. What concerns scientists is that once we pass the 2 degree temperature tipping point, climate changes could become irreversible, setting in motion uncontrollable weather patterns.
A disturbing feature of global warming is what scientists call feedback loops – in layman’s language, vicious circles or falling dominoes. The albedo effect in the Arctic is a good example of a feedback loop. Temperature increases in the Arctic have already passed the 2 degree tipping point. As the polar ice sheet melts, less sunlight is reflected into space and instead is absorbed by the dark surface of open water, triggering further increases in the ambient temperature, which in turn speeds the ice melt and exposes more water to sunlight.
Recent research indicates that because of the “albedo flip,” the Arctic ice pack has probably passed the point of no return and is now in a death spiral. Scientists involved in these studies estimate that the Arctic will be ice-free, for the first time in a million years, by 2020. Not only is the Arctic ice cover melting but the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are disappearing at a rapid rate. The poles are our climate canaries and we ignore the portentous changes occurring there at not only our peril, but also at the peril of future generations.
Science Express reported recently that most of the continental glaciers around the world are also retreating. The rapid disappearance of the continental and oceanic ice sheets is “a ticking time bomb” in the words of Dr James Hansen of NASA. Temperature increases of 2-3 degrees will hasten the melting of the ice sheets and send sea levels soaring, decades ahead of IPCC predictions. Coastal chaos is already hammering the Pacific where islands, such as the Carterets and Tuvalu, are being evacuated and abandoned to the encroaching ocean.
One of the tragedies of shifting climate patterns is that those countries which have done the least to precipitate the crisis, such as Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and the Pacific island states, will suffer the most from the effects of disease, droughts and flooding. The stark morality of innocent people suffering through these devastations should rock the arrogant complacency of developed countries that have largely caused the climate crisis through their profligate consumption. Perhaps climate justice and concern for environmental refugees will soon become a clarion call for all global citizens.
Two measurements are commonly used in climate studies: emissions of greenhouse gases calculated in megatonnes and atmospheric concentrations of these gases defined in parts per million (ppm). For example, global atmospheric levels of the major greenhouse gases stand at 380 ppm today, while Canada’s output of greenhouse gases totalled approximately 750 megatonnes last year. Atmospheric concentrations increase in tandem with the increased volume of greenhouse gases.
Climate scientists estimate that to hold temperature increases at the critical 2 degree limit, we will have to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at a maximum of 400 ppm. We are close to that ceiling at present and concentrations are rising at approximately 20 ppm every decade. Part of the difficulty of slowing greenhouse gas increases is that the natural carbon sinks, such as oceans, soil, and forests are so overloaded that they can no longer absorb excess anthropogenic carbon dioxide.
Furthermore, carbon dioxide lasts at least a century in the atmosphere before it dissipates. By 2050, developed countries (or “over-developed” countries in writer Bill McKibben’s words) will have to reduce their total greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent to avoid cooking the planet.
Kyoto is our only hope of preventing climate chaos because it is the only international agreement focused on slowing the global output of greenhouse gases. The Kyoto Protocol was negotiated under the auspices of the United Nations and adopted in December, 1997. Each of the signatory countries agreed to meet mandatory reduction targets for greenhouse gas emissions. Canada committed itself to reducing its total emissions during the first period (2008-2012) to 6% below its 1990 level. The Canadian Parliament ratified the Kyoto Protocol in December, 2002 and it came into force in February, 2005 committing us to a legally binding international treaty with penalties if we fail to comply.
Environment Canada calculates our total greenhouse gas emissions according to a formula prescribed by the IPCC. The atmospheric levels of each of the major gases (carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) are measured and a formula based on the global warming potential of each gas is then applied to the respective totals. The final emission total is expressed in megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. A megatonne of carbon dioxide is equal to one million tonnes. A metric tonne in turn comprises 1,000 kilograms, a quantity of carbon dioxide that would fill a large family home. Alternatively, a mid-size car driven 20,000 kilometres a year produces 5 tonnes of carbon dioxide.
Environment Canada calculated our total greenhouse gas emissions in 1990, the Kyoto baseline year, at 599 megatonnes. Reducing this total by 6%, our Kyoto commitment, establishes Canada’s target at 563 megatonnes for the period 2008-2012. In 2004 Canadian greenhouse gas emissions hit 750 megatonnes, exceeding our Kyoto commitment by almost 35%. Latest estimates place our present output approaching 780 megatonnes per year. To meet our Kyoto commitment we have to reduce our total greenhouse gas emissions by over 200 megatonnes a year.
To most Canadians, greenhouse gas statistics represent more megatonnes of hot air. But the figures are crucial to understanding the problems of global warming and how we can build a campaign, both individually and collectively, to meet our Kyoto commitments and help moderate climate change. Canada constitutes half a percent of world population but produces 2% of global greenhouse gases. This may appear to be insignificant but on a per capita basis it amounts to about 24 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per Canadian each year.
It is true that some of the biggest polluters, such as the US, have not signed on to Kyoto and developing countries, such as China and India are not included in the first target period. Although China recently overtook the US as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, we should remember that per capita generation of greenhouse gases in China is 2 tonnes. In other words on a per capita basis, Canadians produce more that ten times as much carbon dioxide as does China.
Chinese emissions undoubtedly constitute a major problem in the fight against climate change. But we are complicit in the problem because we buy so much from China and we ship electronic waste, scrap metal, and coal in vast quantities to them. We should reflect carefully on our moral posturing about Chinese environmental policies and restrain our criticism until we set a better example by reducing our own levels of consumption, emissions and pollution. We cannot justify our own inaction by pointing fingers at China.
Kyoto is not a socialist plot. Kyoto is a pledge to ensure that future societies inherit a healthy, sustainable planet; it is a moral pact with unborn generations. Meeting our Kyoto commitment will not be easy. It will involve sacrifice and discipline; it will require courage and tenacity, but it is doable.
These sobering studies are emerging just as public concern about climate change seems to be slipping off the radar screen – eerily reminiscent of the brief period of public anxiety about the environment in the late 1980’s. Memories of the recent strangely warm winter have been eclipsed by a near normal summer and the exigencies of climate seem to have passed like a ten second sound bite. It is back to business as usual.
Climate scientists generally agree that the critical temperature threshold is an increase of 2 degrees – and we may be halfway there already. What concerns scientists is that once we pass the 2 degree temperature tipping point, climate changes could become irreversible, setting in motion uncontrollable weather patterns.
A disturbing feature of global warming is what scientists call feedback loops – in layman’s language, vicious circles or falling dominoes. The albedo effect in the Arctic is a good example of a feedback loop. Temperature increases in the Arctic have already passed the 2 degree tipping point. As the polar ice sheet melts, less sunlight is reflected into space and instead is absorbed by the dark surface of open water, triggering further increases in the ambient temperature, which in turn speeds the ice melt and exposes more water to sunlight.
Recent research indicates that because of the “albedo flip,” the Arctic ice pack has probably passed the point of no return and is now in a death spiral. Scientists involved in these studies estimate that the Arctic will be ice-free, for the first time in a million years, by 2020. Not only is the Arctic ice cover melting but the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are disappearing at a rapid rate. The poles are our climate canaries and we ignore the portentous changes occurring there at not only our peril, but also at the peril of future generations.
Science Express reported recently that most of the continental glaciers around the world are also retreating. The rapid disappearance of the continental and oceanic ice sheets is “a ticking time bomb” in the words of Dr James Hansen of NASA. Temperature increases of 2-3 degrees will hasten the melting of the ice sheets and send sea levels soaring, decades ahead of IPCC predictions. Coastal chaos is already hammering the Pacific where islands, such as the Carterets and Tuvalu, are being evacuated and abandoned to the encroaching ocean.
One of the tragedies of shifting climate patterns is that those countries which have done the least to precipitate the crisis, such as Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and the Pacific island states, will suffer the most from the effects of disease, droughts and flooding. The stark morality of innocent people suffering through these devastations should rock the arrogant complacency of developed countries that have largely caused the climate crisis through their profligate consumption. Perhaps climate justice and concern for environmental refugees will soon become a clarion call for all global citizens.
Two measurements are commonly used in climate studies: emissions of greenhouse gases calculated in megatonnes and atmospheric concentrations of these gases defined in parts per million (ppm). For example, global atmospheric levels of the major greenhouse gases stand at 380 ppm today, while Canada’s output of greenhouse gases totalled approximately 750 megatonnes last year. Atmospheric concentrations increase in tandem with the increased volume of greenhouse gases.
Climate scientists estimate that to hold temperature increases at the critical 2 degree limit, we will have to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at a maximum of 400 ppm. We are close to that ceiling at present and concentrations are rising at approximately 20 ppm every decade. Part of the difficulty of slowing greenhouse gas increases is that the natural carbon sinks, such as oceans, soil, and forests are so overloaded that they can no longer absorb excess anthropogenic carbon dioxide.
Furthermore, carbon dioxide lasts at least a century in the atmosphere before it dissipates. By 2050, developed countries (or “over-developed” countries in writer Bill McKibben’s words) will have to reduce their total greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent to avoid cooking the planet.
Kyoto is our only hope of preventing climate chaos because it is the only international agreement focused on slowing the global output of greenhouse gases. The Kyoto Protocol was negotiated under the auspices of the United Nations and adopted in December, 1997. Each of the signatory countries agreed to meet mandatory reduction targets for greenhouse gas emissions. Canada committed itself to reducing its total emissions during the first period (2008-2012) to 6% below its 1990 level. The Canadian Parliament ratified the Kyoto Protocol in December, 2002 and it came into force in February, 2005 committing us to a legally binding international treaty with penalties if we fail to comply.
Environment Canada calculates our total greenhouse gas emissions according to a formula prescribed by the IPCC. The atmospheric levels of each of the major gases (carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) are measured and a formula based on the global warming potential of each gas is then applied to the respective totals. The final emission total is expressed in megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. A megatonne of carbon dioxide is equal to one million tonnes. A metric tonne in turn comprises 1,000 kilograms, a quantity of carbon dioxide that would fill a large family home. Alternatively, a mid-size car driven 20,000 kilometres a year produces 5 tonnes of carbon dioxide.
Environment Canada calculated our total greenhouse gas emissions in 1990, the Kyoto baseline year, at 599 megatonnes. Reducing this total by 6%, our Kyoto commitment, establishes Canada’s target at 563 megatonnes for the period 2008-2012. In 2004 Canadian greenhouse gas emissions hit 750 megatonnes, exceeding our Kyoto commitment by almost 35%. Latest estimates place our present output approaching 780 megatonnes per year. To meet our Kyoto commitment we have to reduce our total greenhouse gas emissions by over 200 megatonnes a year.
To most Canadians, greenhouse gas statistics represent more megatonnes of hot air. But the figures are crucial to understanding the problems of global warming and how we can build a campaign, both individually and collectively, to meet our Kyoto commitments and help moderate climate change. Canada constitutes half a percent of world population but produces 2% of global greenhouse gases. This may appear to be insignificant but on a per capita basis it amounts to about 24 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per Canadian each year.
It is true that some of the biggest polluters, such as the US, have not signed on to Kyoto and developing countries, such as China and India are not included in the first target period. Although China recently overtook the US as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, we should remember that per capita generation of greenhouse gases in China is 2 tonnes. In other words on a per capita basis, Canadians produce more that ten times as much carbon dioxide as does China.
Chinese emissions undoubtedly constitute a major problem in the fight against climate change. But we are complicit in the problem because we buy so much from China and we ship electronic waste, scrap metal, and coal in vast quantities to them. We should reflect carefully on our moral posturing about Chinese environmental policies and restrain our criticism until we set a better example by reducing our own levels of consumption, emissions and pollution. We cannot justify our own inaction by pointing fingers at China.
Kyoto is not a socialist plot. Kyoto is a pledge to ensure that future societies inherit a healthy, sustainable planet; it is a moral pact with unborn generations. Meeting our Kyoto commitment will not be easy. It will involve sacrifice and discipline; it will require courage and tenacity, but it is doable.
